The number of single-family homes and condos that were flipped fell to 45,901 in the third quarter of 2018, down 12 percent compared with a year ago, and the lowest level since the first quarter of 2015. Homes that were flipped in third quarter represented 5.0 percent of all single-family home and condo sales during the quarter, down from a 5.2 percent rate in the previous quarter, and from 5.1 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the Q3 2018 U.S. Home Flipping Report from Attom Data Solutions.

"Home flipping acts as a canary in the coal mine for a cooling housing market because the high velocity of transactions provides home flippers with some of the best and most real-time data on how the market is trending," said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. "We've now seen three consecutive quarters with year-over-year decreases in home flips. The last time that happened was in 2014 following the mortgage rate jump in the second half of 2013, but it's still far from the 11 consecutive quarters with year-over-year decreases in home flips extending from Q2 2006 through Q4 2008 and leading up to the last housing crash."

Average home flipping returns drop to 6.5-year low
Homes flipped in Q3 2018 sold for an average of $63,000 more than what the home flipper purchased them for, down from an all-time high average gross flipping profit of $68,000 in the first quarter and down from an average gross flipping profit of $65,000 a year ago to the lowest level since Q2 2016.

The average gross flipping profit of $63,000 in Q3 2018 represented an average 42.6 percent gross flipping return on investment, down from an average 44.1 percent gross flipping ROI in the previous quarter and down from an average 48.1 percent gross flipping ROI in Q3 2017 to the lowest level since Q1 2012 — a 6.5-year low.

Nearly one-third of home flips sold for $100,000 to $200,000
The share of homes flipped that were sold by the home flipper between $100,000 to $200,000 made up 31.6 percent of all transactions, while those flip sales that occurred on homes sold for more than $5 million saw the highest gross flipping return on investment of any price range.

Of the homebuyers across the country who change states, most plan to head to the Sun Belt. According to the State Migration Study from LendingTree, most of the 12.1 percent of homebuyers who move from one state to another—will head south.

More than two million new purchase mortgage loan requests for primary residences in all 50 states through mid-November 2018 to find the percentage of requests from residents who were looking to move across state lines.

The results reveal the most popular new locations for homeowners in each state, along with the states with the highest percentage of requests to move to other parts of the country.

The most popular states are as follows:

Florida is the No. 1 destination. Florida was the top new destination for 15 of the 50 states. Of all purchase mortgage requests during the study’s period, it received 9.1 percent. For out-of-state movers, 12.4 percent of requests were for Florida. The Sunshine State has a long history of bringing in visitors and new residents, particularly retirees.

Texas residents love the Lone Star State. Texas had the highest percentage of residents looking to move within state lines — 93.4 percent of purchase mortgage requests from individuals in Texas were for properties in the same state. Michigan was the state with the second highest percentage of residents looking to move within its borders, at 91.3 percent.

Alaska has the most residents looking to move away. By contrast, Alaska had the lowest percentage, 75.2 percent, of residents looking to stay in state. The top destination was Washington state.

Most people looking to move out of state don’t want to go far. More than half of the most popular new destination states border the current state. But if they are looking to move cross-country, chances are it’s to Florida. Of the 20 states where the residents’ most popular new location doesn’t border their current state, 13 chose Florida.

A Moving Popularity Score Index analyzes destination states adjusted by population. South Carolina scored highest, 152, or 52% greater than suggested by its population. It was followed by Florida, 144; Delaware, 138; Georgia, 138; and North Carolina, 137. At the other end of the spectrum, homebuyers are least attracted to South Dakota, 64; Hawaii, 67; Minnesota, 71; California, 72; and New York, 74.

Mortgage applications increased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Nov. 30, 2018. The results for the week ending November 23, 2018, included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.

“Application activity increased over the week for both purchase and refinance loans, and were 10 percent and 7 percent higher, respectively, than the week before the Thanksgiving holiday,”
said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 42 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 6 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 36 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Treasury rates continued to slide last week, driven mainly by concerns over slowing global economic growth and U.S. and China trade uncertainty. The 30-year fixed-rate fell for the third week in a row to 5.08 percent and has declined a total of nine basis points over this span,” said Kan. “Additionally, we saw a decrease in the average loan size for purchase applications to the lowest amount since December 2017 ($298,000 from $313,000). This is perhaps an indication that there are fewer jumbo borrowers, or maybe first-time buyers are having better success reaching the market as we close out the year.”

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 40.4 percent of total applications from 37.9 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity decreased to 7.4 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications increased to 10.2 percent from 9.6 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 10.0 percent from 9.9 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.6 percent from 0.7 percent the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) decreased to 5.08 percent from 5.12 percent, with points decreasing to 0.44 from 0.46 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $453,100) increased to 4.89 percent from 4.88 percent, with points decreasing to 0.30 from 0.31 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate remained unchanged from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 5.05 percent from 5.11 percent, with points decreasing to 0.62 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.50 percent from 4.53 percent, with points increasing to 0.60 from 0.51 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate remained unchanged from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 4.33 percent from 4.29 percent, with points decreasing to 0.21 from 0.42 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.