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Black Knight Originations Market Monitor: Lock Volume Drops Sharply on Rising Rates as August Production Hits Four-Year Low

 

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Sept. 12, 2022 – Today, Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI) announced the release of its latest Originations Market Monitor report, looking at mortgage origination data through August month-end. Leveraging daily rate lock data from the Black Knight Optimal Blue PPE – mortgage lending’s most widely used pricing engine – the Originations Market Monitor provides the industry’s earliest and most comprehensive view of origination activity. 

“Mortgage originators continue to feel the effects of interest rate and affordability challenges,” said Scott Happ, president of Optimal Blue, a division of Black Knight. “Facing headwinds of higher rates and a move into the traditionally slower purchasing months, rate lock volumes fell nearly 9% overall in August to their lowest level since December 2019. Purchase lock counts, which exclude the impact of soaring home values on volume, are off 30% from last year. That count is now down more than 16% from 2019, marking the second consecutive month the number of purchase locks have fallen below pre-pandemic levels, as well as the lowest August count in more than four years.”

The month’s pipeline data showed overall rate lock dollar volume down 8.9% month over month, led by a 13.9% decline in rate/term refinance locks, which are now down 94.5% since last year. Cash-out refinance activity fell another 8.9% from July – a 72.2% year-over-year decline. The refi share of the market held at 18%, the lowest share on record dating back to January 2018. Government loan products continued to gain market share as FHA lock activity increased at the expense of both conventional and non-conforming loan volumes, a trend also likely reflected in another decline in the average loan amount – from $344K to $340K. The overall average credit score in August held steady at 722.

“Interest rates rose again in August after retreating slightly in July,” Happ explained. “This continues to have profound effects on home affordability, which returned to near 35-year lows to close out the month. As we reported last month, home prices have begun to pull back in some of the hotter home markets, particularly those on the West Coast. Likewise, we’ve observed declines in both the average purchase price and average amount financed in each of the past 5 months, with each now down 9% since March. We will keep a close eye on this trend as the market moves into the traditionally slower purchasing months ahead.”

Each month’s Originations Market Monitor provides high-level origination metrics for the U.S. and the top 20 metropolitan statistical areas by share of total origination volume. Much more detail on August’s origination activity can be found in the full Black Knight Originations Market Monitor report.


About Black Knight

Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI) is an award-winning software, data and analytics company that drives innovation in the mortgage lending and servicing and real estate industries, as well as the capital and secondary markets. Businesses leverage our robust, integrated solutions across the entire homeownership life cycle to help retain existing customers, gain new customers, mitigate risk and operate more effectively.

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MMI announces its newest Regional Director of Growth, Heidi Iverson

 

SALT LAKE CITY, Sept. 7, 2022 — Mobility Market Intelligence (MMI), a leader in data intelligence and market insight tools for the mortgage and real estate industries, today announced that Heidi Iverson has joined the organization as a regional director of growth. In this position, Iverson will consult and strategize with MMI’s clientele which now includes more than 40 of the top 50 lenders in the nation, to identify growth opportunities to drive adoption and increase return on investment (ROI). 

Throughout Iverson’s mortgage experience, she has led the charge to build internal recruiting departments at several companies, including Guild Mortgage, ClosingMark Home Loans and Castle & Cooke Mortgage, LLC., contributing to her expertise in strategizing for business goals, identifying technology needs, creating recruiting strategies and identifying talent team needs. These experiences also provided Iverson the opportunity to educate loan officers on MMI and how to work with the real estate section of the platform for business development.

“As an organic user and now on the internal side of MMI, Heidi has in-depth knowledge to guide clientele in getting the most out of our platform,” said MMI founder and CEO Ben Teerlink. “The capabilities within MMI are endless, but deciphering what features to utilize to drive individual business development and return on investment can be daunting. We’ve prioritized building technology that speaks for itself and providing access to some of the best in the business so users can get the most out of MMI.”

Iverson's background includes extensive recruiting history. Previously self-employed as the founder of PlacedE, a mortgage recruiting agency, Iverson has first-hand experience with the MMI's powerful insights, having implemented it with PlacedE clients. 

“My background has given me first-hand knowledge of the multiple facets of MMI. I’m looking forward to sharing these insights to help lenders identify and target both the right referral partners and sales staff that will help them drive their long-term organizational growth goals,” said Iverson.

About MMI

Mobility Market Intelligence (MMI) is a market leader in data intelligence and market insight tools for the mortgage and real estate industries. Headquartered in Salt Lake City, the company’s signature product, MMI, provides actionable intelligence for lenders, real estate agents, real estate brokerages, title companies and others in the real estate industry. MMI is currently used by more than 350 enterprise customers, including 20 of the top 25 lenders in the country. To learn more, visit https://mmi.io or contact This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

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High Home Prices, Mortgage Rates Weighing on Housing Sentiment

Year-over-Year Jump in Interest Rates Amplifying Perceptions of Unaffordability for Buyers and ‘Lock-in Effect’ for Sellers

WASHINGTON, DC – September 7, 2022 – The Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI)decreased 0.8 points in August to 62.0, its sixth consecutive monthly decline, as high home prices and elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on consumer sentiment, particularly home-selling sentiment. Despite the relatively small aggregate change, the HPSI experienced significant volatility among four of its six components, including those measuring consumer perceptions of homebuying and home-selling conditions, as well as expectations regarding the future direction of home prices and mortgage rates. 

Month over month, consumers reported that home-selling conditions have worsened – although that component remains strongly positive on net. Consumers also reported that homebuying conditions have improved, but 73% continue to report that it’s a “bad time to buy.” For the first time since the start of the pandemic, consumers are neutral, on net, about the future path of home prices, with an increasing share this month reporting that prices will decline. Meanwhile, a greater share reported the expectation that mortgage rates will decline, even though a majority continue to believe that mortgage rates will go up over the next 12 months. Year over year, the full index is down 13.7 points.

“The share of consumers expecting home prices to go down over the next year increased substantially in August. Accompanying this, HPSI respondents reported a significant decrease in home-selling sentiment,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.  “We also observed a large decline in consumers reporting high home prices as the primary reason for it being a good time to sell a home, suggesting that expectations of slowing or declining home prices have begun to negatively affect selling sentiment. Conversely, lower home prices would obviously be welcome news for potential first-time homebuyers, who are likely feeling the combined affordability constraints of the high home price and high mortgage rate environment. In fact, the survey’s ‘ease of getting a mortgage’ component dropped to an all-time low among this typically younger demographic (i.e., 18- to 34-year-olds). With home prices expected to moderate over the forecast horizon and economic uncertainty heightened, both homebuyers and home-sellers may be incentivized to remain on the sidelines – homebuyers anticipating home price declines and potential home-sellers not keen to give up their lower, fixed mortgage rate – contributing to a further cooling in home sales through the end of the year.”

Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in August by 0.8 points to 62.0. The HPSI is down 13.7 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.

  • Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home increased from 17% to 22%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy decreased from 76% to 73%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy increased 8 percentage points month over month. 
  • Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 67% to 59%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell increased from 27% to 35%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 16 percentage points month over month.
  • Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 39% to 33%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from 30% to 33%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from 26% to 28%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up decreased 9 percentage points month over month.
  • Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from 6% to 11%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased from 67% to 61%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 21% to 25%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 11 percentage points month over month.
  • Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from 78% to 79%, while the percentage who say they are concerned decreased from 22% to 21%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 2 percentage points month over month.
  • Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased from 24% to 25%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 13% to 15%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from 61% to 59%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 1 percentage point month over month.

                                

About Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index

The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers’ home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers’ current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.

About Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey

The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey (NHS) polled approximately 1,000 respondents via live telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, home and rental price changes, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts, six of which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). For more information, please see the Technical Notes. Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The August 2022 National Housing Survey was conducted between August 1, 2022 and August 22, 2022. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. Interviews were conducted by ReconMR on behalf of PSB Insights and in coordination with Fannie Mae.

 

Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings

For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results. 

 

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